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"Full Card Reports True Odds Wagering"

    Full Card Reports True Odds (AKA Our True Odds) are listed along with the morning line odds on our reports just to the right of a horse's name. When a horse is going postward at higher odds than Our True Odds you then have an essential overlay situation.

If you are having success with your current wagering plan then don't change it. As the old saying goes "If it's not broken don't fix it!". However if you want to improve upon the size of your bankroll or improve your skills then this article has your answer.

You will need to read this page completely and most likely more than once to understand how to use it correctly. This page will always be here so you can study it as often as you like and refer back to it any time you want.

Let us now get an understanding of Our True Odds. Next to each horse's name on our the Full Card Reports you will see 2 numbers in parenthesis separated by a slash (/). The 1st number (on the left) = the Morning Line Odds. The 2nd number (on the right) = Our True Odds.

Example: AFFIRMED (4/2.5) - Horse #9 Affirmed has a morning line of 4-1 and Our True Odds of 2.5-1 which is the same as 5-2 on the tote board.

In this following example looking at Table A below we see that:

** AFFIRMED is 4-1 in the Morning Line but Our True Odds are 2.5-1 (5-2) as just mentioned.

See Table B below for odds to $1/tote odds conversion.

** Then ALYDAR is 2.5-1 (5-2) in the Morning Line but has Our True Odds of 3.5-1 (7-2).

** Listed next is SEATTLE SLEW who is 4.5-1 (9-2) in the Morning Line but Our True Odds are 4-1.

** Next SPECTACULAR BID is 3.5-1 (7-2) Morning Line but Our True Odds are 4.5-1 (9-2).

** And CIGAR is 6-1 in the Morning Line but Our True Odds are a few points higher at 8-1.

Every horse with Full Card Reports True Odds of 6-1 or lower should be considered a major contender in each race.

Most of the best double digit paying overlay winners have Our True Odds of between 2-1 to 6-1. Read the Value Odds and Overlays article for more information on that subject.

These longshots make excellent prospects for using in your exotic wagers and a win bet if the odds are showing a nice overlay.

Let us now get a better understanding of overlays. You have true odds set by Full Card Reports and morning line odds set by the track officials.

The track's morning line oddsmaker sets the line by how he thinks the betting public will wager. As you can see true odds and morning line odds are 2 different worlds.

A horseplayer must have an advantage over the odds to succeed. If not then he will never make long term profit in this game.

Here are the 3 types of odds and what to do with them:

A) Morning line odds - Forget they exist except to use as a comparison to true odds.

B) Full Card Reports TRUE ODDS - These represent the odds which Full Card Reports considers "fair".

C) Near post time odds - These are the odds you will base your wagering decision on.

Obviously you can't get your bet in as they leave the gate so allow enough time to place your wager. If the near post time odds on a horse are higher than Full Card Reports TRUE ODDS then you have an OVERLAY situation.

If the near post time odds are lower than true odds then you have an underlay (the nasty and bankroll draining opposite of an overlay).

Fore example: If your horse has our true odds of 2-1 and his near post time odds are 6-5 it really does not make a good play at all (underlay).

F.A.Q #1 - Should I base whether or not to bet a horse solely on his true odds?. Let us say, for example, you want to bet a certain horse and his TRUE ODDS are 2-1.

If his near post time odds are 7-5 he is really not a good bet (underlay). The horse could certainly win but making these types of bets will hurt your bankroll in the long run.

Now if your horse has Our True Odds of 2-1 and near post time odds are 3-1 or higher then you are starting to get overlay odds.

We are using a horse with true odds of 2-1 for this example but obviously the principles set forth will work with any odds.

F.A.Q #2 - Should I base how much I bet a horse based on his true odds? YES however even the best true odds overlay situation calls for a maximum of 5% of your wagering bankroll.

Most of a horseplayer's wagers should be between 1% and 4% of his horse racing bankroll.

The player should keep separate bankrolls for your exotics and win bets. See the Money Management page for more details about how much to wager.

You see below in table A that AFFIRMED has our true odds of 5-2. If his near post time odds were 3-1 or more it would be the beginning of an overlay situation.

If he were 4-1 near post time it would be a decent overlay. If his near post time odds were 2-1 or less he would then be a dreaded underlay.

Betting on underlays (opposite of overlay) is a sure way to a deflated horse racing bankroll over time. To achieve long term success as a horseplayer you must focus on OVERLAYS (this has been proven in John Moore's near 2 decades of daily study and research).

You will see many horses with Full Card Reports true odds of between 2-1 and 6-1 that win at big overlay odds!

Compare our true odds with near post time odds to find the overlays.

Take some time to get familiar with how the reports work at the track(s) you play and you will be on your way to success!

The bottom line for true odds and overlays: Let's say, for example, AFFIRMED is an underlay with near post time odds of 6-5 and that ALYDAR was 8-1 near post time. We see Alydar's true odds are 7-2 so that would make him a decent overlay and the best wager in the race.

Horses with lower odds win the most races however betting the overlays will make you long term profit. Would you rather cash more tickets and lose money or cash less tickets and make a profit? Most of the professional players will only bet on overlays!.

The player should experiment with this plan for a while at your track. Get a feel for this type of wagering. Don't just rush in throwing money around blindly.

There are going to be certain situations to weigh these true odds more heavily than others. You will see these trends as you observe and, we certainly hope, take notes.

We've said many times before that a true student of the game is the one who will beat this game over time. Students carry notebooks and take notes. "I don't want my friends to think I'm a nerd" one fellow told us when talking about keeping a notebook.

We asked that guy what he and his friends like to do in between races. He replied "We shoot the breeze, ask who do you like and drink Coors light". That's fine if that relaxes you. But don't expect to make long term profit doing so.

Many players realize this, accept this, and adjust (lower) their expectation levels accordingly.

                   TABLE A
  9 AFFIRMED          (4/2.5)
  3 ALYDAR            (2.5/3.5)
  7 SEATTLE SLEW      (4.5/4)
  8 SPECTACULAR BID   (3.5/4.5)
 10 CIGAR             (6/8)

                   TABLE B
Odds to $1       = Tote Board Odds =  $2 Payout
  0.5            =   1-2           =  $3.00
  0.6            =   3-5           =  $3.20
  0.8            =   4-5           =  $3.60
  1.0            =   1-1           =  $4.00
  1.2            =   6-5           =  $4.40
  1.4            =   7-5           =  $4.80
  1.5            =   3-2           =  $5.00
  1.6            =   8-5           =  $5.20
  1.8            =   9-5           =  $5.60
  2              =   2-1           =  $6.00
  2.5            =   5-2           =  $7.00
  3              =   3-1           =  $8.00
  3.5            =   7-2           =  $9.00
  4              =   4-1           = $10.00
  4.5            =   9-2           = $11.00
  5              =   5-1           = $12.00
  6              =   6-1           = $14.00
  7              =   7-1           = $16.00
  8              =   8-1           = $18.00

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