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"Full Card Reports True Odds Wagering"

Full Card Reports True Odds (AKA Our True Odds) are listed with the morning line odds on our reports just to the right of a horse's name. When a horse is going postward at higher odds than Our True Odds you then have an overlay situation!
If you are having success with your current wagering plan then don't change it. As the old saying goes "If it's not broken don't fix it!". However if you want to improve upon the size of your bankroll or improve your skills then this article has your answer.
You will need to read this page completely and most likely more than once to understand how to use it correctly. This page will always be here so you can study it as often as you like and refer back to it any time you want.

Let us now get an understanding of Our True Odds. Next to each horse's name on our DIAMOND reports, QUICK-F PLUS reports, EVGOLD reports, etc you will see 2 numbers in parenthesis separated by a slash (/). The 1st number (on the left) = the Morning Line Odds. The 2nd number (on the right) = Our True Odds.

Example: 9 AFFIRMED (4/2.5) - Horse #9 Affirmed has a morning line if 4-1 and Our True Odds of 2.5-1 which is the same as 5-2 on the tote board.

In this following example looking at Table A below we see that:

**AFFIRMED is 4-1 in the Morning Line but Our True Odds are 2.5-1 (5-2)

See Table B below for odds to $1/tote odds conversion.

**Then ALYDAR is 2.5-1 (5-2) in the Morning Line but has Our True Odds of 3.5-1 (7-2).

**Listed next is SEATTLE SLEW who is 4.5-1 (9-2) in the Morning Line but Our True Odds are 4-1.
**Next SPECTACULAR BID is 3.5-1 (7-2) Morning Line but Our True Odds are 4.5-1 (9-2).
**And CIGAR is 6-1 in the Morning Line but Our True Odds are a few points higher at 8-1.

Every horse with Full Card Reports True Odds of 6-1 or lower should be considered a major contender in each race.

Every horse with Our True Odds of 8-1 could be considered a live longshot if the near post time tote odds are higher and generous (overlay).

Most of the best double digit paying overlay winners have Our True Odds of between 2-1 to 6-1. Read the Value Odds and Overlays article for more information on that subject.

These longshots make excellent prospects for using in your exotic wagers and a win bet if the odds are showing a nice overlay.

Let us now get a better understanding of overlays. You have true odds set by Full Card Reports and morning line odds set by the track official.

The track's morning line oddsmaker sets the line by how he thinks the betting public will wager. As you can see true odds and morning line odds are 2 different worlds.

As a horseplayer you must have an advantage over the odds to succeed, if you don't you will never make long term profit in this game. Here are the 3 types of odds and what to do with them:

A) Morning line odds - Forget they exist except to use as a comparison to true odds.

B) Full Card Reports TRUE ODDS - These represent the odds which Full Card Reports considers "fair".

C) Near post time odds - These are the odds you will base your wagering decision on.

Obviously you can't get your bet in as they leave the gate so allow enough time to place your wager. If the near post time odds on a horse are higher than Full Card Reports TRUE ODDS then you have an OVERLAY.

If the near post time odds are lower than true odds then you have an underlay.

On the other hand, if your horse has our true odds of 2-1 and his near post time odds are 6-5 it really does not make a good play at all (underlay).

F.A.Q #1 - Should I base whether or not to bet a horse solely on his true odds?. Let us say, for example, you want to bet a certain horse and his TRUE ODDS are 2-1.

If his near post time odds are 7-5 he is really not a good bet (underlay). The horse could certainly win but making these types of bets will hurt your bankroll in the long run.

Since he is an underlay at 7-5 but you really like him, take a look at the exactas and see if you can find value there.

The The 5-Step Exacta Value Strategy can help you to do this.

Now if your horse has Our True Odds of 2-1 and near post time odds are 2-1 or 5-2 then you are getting fair value. If his odds are 3-1 or higher then you are getting an overlay.

We are using a horse with true odds of 2-1 for this example, obviously the principles set forth will work with any odds.

F.A.Q #2 - Should I base how much I bet a horse based on his true odds? YES however even the best true odds overlay situation calls for a maximum of 5% of your wagering bankroll (and this max should only be bet for best plays).

Most of your wagers should be between 1% and 4% of your bankroll.

You should keep separate bankrolls for your exotics and win bets. See the Money Management page for more details about how much to wager.

You see below in table A that AFFIRMED has true odds of 5-2. If his near post time odds were 3-1 or more it would be an overlay.

If he were 4-1 near post time it would be a nice overlay. If his near post time odds were 2-1 or less he would then be an underlay.

Betting on underlays (opposite of overlay) is a sure way to a deflated bankroll over time. To achieve long term success as a horseplayer you must focus on OVERLAYS.

Any horse who has Full Card Reports true odds of 6-1 or less is considered a major contender in each race.

You will see many horses with Full Card Reports true odds of between 2-1 and 8-1 that win at huge overlay odds!

Compare our true odds with near post time odds to find the overlays.

Take some time to get familiar with how the reports work at the track(s) you play and you will be on your way to success!

If you really like a horse but his near post time odds are an underlay, you can:

1) Wager only 1% of your bankroll on him just to have action.

2) Try to find value on him in the exotics.

3) Bet an overlay in the race instead.

4) Pass the race. I know that is like torture for some players to pass a race. A few would rather pass a kidney stone than a race. The most successful players do not play every race.

As your experience level increases you will become a better judge on which races to pass. Consult your wagering log to see what type of races you have success with and what types you don't. A wagering log is simply a notebook to keep track of all your wagers and their results.

The bottom line for true odds and overlays: Let's say for example your pick AFFIRMED is an underlay with near post time odds of 6-5 and that ALYDAR was 6-1 near post time. We see Alydar's true odds are 7-2 so that would make him a generous overlay and possibly the best wager in the race.

Horses with lower odds win the most races however betting the overlays will make you profit. Would you rather cash more tickets and lose money or cash less tickets and make a profit? Most of the professional players will only bet on overlays!.

You should experiment with this plan for a while at your track. Get a feel for this type of wagering. Don't just rush in throwing money around blindly.

There are going to be certain situations to weigh these true odds more heavily than others. You will see these trends as you observe and, we certainly hope, take notes.

We've said before that a true student of the game is the one who will beat this game over time. Students carry notebooks and take notes. "I don't want my friends to think I'm a nerd" one fellow told us when talking about keeping a notebook.

We asked that guy what he and his friends like to do in between races. He replied "We shoot the breeze, ask who do you like and drink Coors light". That's fine if that relaxes you. But don't expect to make long term profit doing so.

Many players realize this, accept this, and adjust (lower) their expectation levels accordingly.

Links: Money Management | The 5-Step Exacta Value Strategy | Value Odds and Overlays | 3-Step Bankroll Management

                   TABLE A
-----------------------------------------------
PRG# HORSE        ML ODDS/TRUE ODDS
-----------------------------------------------
  9 AFFIRMED          (4/2.5)
-----------------------------------------------
  3 ALYDAR            (2.5/3.5)
-----------------------------------------------
  7 SEATTLE SLEW      (4.5/4)
-----------------------------------------------
  8 SPECTACULAR BID   (3.5/4.5)
-----------------------------------------------
 10 CIGAR             (6/8)

TABLE B ----------------------------------------------- Odds to $1 = Tote Board Odds = $2 Payout ----------------------------------------------- 0.5 = 1-2 = $3.00 ----------------------------------------------- 0.6 = 3-5 = $3.20 ----------------------------------------------- 0.8 = 4-5 = $3.60 ----------------------------------------------- 1.0 = 1-1 = $4.00 ----------------------------------------------- 1.2 = 6-5 = $4.40 ----------------------------------------------- 1.4 = 7-5 = $4.80 ----------------------------------------------- 1.5 = 3-2 = $5.00 ----------------------------------------------- 1.6 = 8-5 = $5.20 ----------------------------------------------- 1.8 = 9-5 = $5.60 ----------------------------------------------- 2 = 2-1 = $6.00 ----------------------------------------------- 2.5 = 5-2 = $7.00 ----------------------------------------------- 3 = 3-1 = $8.00 ----------------------------------------------- 3.5 = 7-2 = $9.00 ----------------------------------------------- 4 = 4-1 = $10.00 ----------------------------------------------- 4.5 = 9-2 = $11.00 ----------------------------------------------- 5 = 5-1 = $12.00 ----------------------------------------------- 6 = 6-1 = $14.00 ----------------------------------------------- 7 = 7-1 = $16.00 ----------------------------------------------- 8 = 8-1 = $18.00 ----------------------------------------------- ETC.......

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