2009 Kentucky Derby Statistics: Experimental Free Handicap, Sire Lines & Dosage Index
- Listed below are male horses within the top 10 pounds of the Experimental Free Handicap (EFH). The 1 filly that is listed is a possible contenders for the Kentucky Derby as of this writing.
- Horses ranked within 10 pounds of the male topweight or who are a champion in another country and have a Dosage Index of 4.00 or less are considered the dual qualifiers.
- Dual Qualifiers have statistically shown that they have a better chance at winning the Derby.
- Dosage Index (DI) is a metaphor for genetic suitability to ten furlongs.
- 12 of the last 22 winners (55%) come from the RAISE A NATIVE sire line.
- 9 of the last 14 winners (64%) come from the RAISE A NATIVE sire line.
- 6 of the last 9 winners (67%) come from the RAISE A NATIVE sire line.
- Only 4 winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1940 (Strike the Gold [1991], Real Quiet [1998],
Charismatic [1999] and Giacomo [2005]), have had a Dosage Index above 4.00.
Even though the
aforementioned 4 horses won the Kentucky Derby within the last 2 decades (18 years to be exact),
the percentage of 4 out of 68 (1940-2008) is just 6% overall.
- Even if you consider 4 out of the last 18 years it is still a low figure of 22% of the winners that had a DI above 4.00.
- Probably more important, helpful or relevant in this day and age is a current Average Dosage Index figure instead of just considering the 4.00 threshold exclusively.
- The average DI since 1940 is 2.21
- The average DI in the past 11 years is 3.08 and that includes REAL QUIET'S 5.29, CHARISMATIC'S 5.22 AND GIACOMO'S 4.33.
- The average DI from 2000 to 2008 is 2.59.
Weight HORSE Sire/Damsire SIRE LINE DI
126 MIDSHIPMAN Unbridled's Song/Avenue of Flags RAISE A NATIVE 2.37
124 VINEYARD HAVEN Lido Palace/Aloha Prospector RAISE A NATIVE 3.00
124 STARDOM BOUND (f) Tapit/Tarr Road BOLD RULER 3.36
123 SQUARE EDDIE Smart Strike/El Gran Senor RAISE A NATIVE 3.40
122 STREET HERO Street Cry/Summer Squall Retired
121 OLD FASHIONED Unbridled's Song/by Meadowlake RAISE A NATIVE 5.22
120 DONATIVUM Cadeaux Genereux/Warning HYPERION 1.50
120 PIONEEROF THE NILE Empire Maker/Lord At War RAISE A NATIVE 3.89
119 WESTPHALIA Danehill Dancer/Lyphard NORTHERN DANCER 2.40
118 CORONET OF A BARON Pure Prize/Time for a Change NORTHERN DANCER 1.91
118 I WANT REVENGE Stephen Got Even/Roy BOLD RULER 3.00
118 TERRAIN Sky Mesa/Forty Niner BOLD RULER 2.20
117 BIG DRAMA Montbrook/Notebook BUCKPASSER 3.00
117 CHARITABLE MAN Lemon Drop Kid/Saint Ballado RAISE A NATIVE 2.06
116 BEETHOVEN Sky Mesa/Carson City BOLD RULER 5.86
116 BELIEVE IN HOPE Thunder Gulch/Mr. Greeley RAISE A NATIVE 3.00
116 CHOCOLATE CANDY Candy Ride/Seattle Slew RAISE A NATIVE 2.08
116 DEL CONTE Point Given/Flying Continental RAISE A NATIVE 1.67
116 RUN AWAY AND HIDE City Zip/Runaway Groom Retired
116 SOUTHERN EXCHANGE Exchange Rate/Woodman NORTHERN DANCER 2.69
116 WEST SIDE BERNIE Bernstein/Gilded Time NORTHERN DANCER 1.80
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