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 FactorsFor Longshot Exotics" We have completed a long study on the characteristics of horses at high odds (aka longshots) that finish in the money and make the exotics pay well. We all know that some exactas, trifectas and superfectas pay very well. A lot of the time the reason why these exotic bets have such a generous return is because horses with high odds finish 2nd, 3rd, etc. Those with high odds who finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th are actually the key to every generous payoff in exotic wagers . Let's call them "Exotic Key Horses". With the advent of fifty cent ($0.50) trifectas and dime ($0.10) superfectas more and more players are diving into the exotics pool and finding the water 'just right'. Even the $1 minimum wagers can be affordable and sensible to play if a certain strategy and method is followed and we focus for exotics that pay well. This method must have a certain proven successful structure that takes into account patterns, characteristics and trends of horses finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th at high odds. In our study we discovered that, of those horses who finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th, at high odds, there is a certain pattern of characteristics that are favorable. In knowing what pattern to look for, we then know what horses to use in our exactas, trifectas and superfectas in the 'underneath' positions . A long (several years) and extensive (over 54,000 races) study is finally complete. The result is a compilation of the most successful "characteristics" of "Exotic Key Horses" that fill out those high paying exotic wagers. We have discovered 32 key elements or factors that are the "cream of the crop" characteristics of horses finishing in the money at high odds. We use a Value Weighted Index (VWI) that grades each of the "32 Key Factors" and assigns each factor a certain number of points. Then each factor is placed into one of three groups. These groups are simply named A1, A2 or A3 with A1 being the highest rated group, A2 second highest, etc. A (VWI) is an index in which greater weight is given to the factors that are involved in the higher paying exactas, trifectas and superfectas. Actually those with "A1" Characteristics also showed a very good pattern for winning races as well as finishing in the money. 1) HAS VALUE ODDS ICON  Rated a top 3 selection AND morning line odds are 8-1 or higher. 2) HAS THE PACE ADVANTAGE ICON  This icon is generated when one single horse in a race has a distinct early AND middle race pace advantage. It will not appear in every race. 3) HAS THE BEST EARLY PACE RATING (ER PA) The best (highest) figure in each race is underlined on the reports for easy viewing. 4) HAS THE BEST LATE PACE RATING (LT PA) The best (highest) figure in each race is underlined on the reports for easy viewing. 5) HAS THE BEST TOTAL CLASS RATING (CLASS TL) The best (highest) figure in each race is underlined on the reports for easy viewing. 6) HAS ONE OF THE TOP JOCKEY/TRAINER TEAM ICONS   Jockey/Trainer team have a good record as a team recently or over a long term study. 7) HAS THE BEST RECENT CLASS RATING (CLASS RE) The best (highest) figure in each race is underlined on the reports for easy viewing. 8) HAS THE BEST TOTAL PACE RATING The best (highest) figure in each race is underlined on the reports for easy viewing. STRONG IN RACES RUN ON TURF OR AN ALL-WEATHER SURFACE. 9) HAS THE BEST MID PACE RATING (MD PA) The best (highest) figure in each race is underlined on the reports for easy viewing. 10) HAS THE FINAL TIME ADVANTAGE ICON  For any track or surface (turf, dirt, etc). 11) HAS THE FINAL TIME 'ALL WEATHER' ICON  For all-weather (polytrack, cushion track, synthetic, etc) tracks only. 12) IS THE ONLY HORSE IN RACE WITH A $ NEXT TO PRS LVL The only horse in a race that is dropping to lowest class level of career. 13) HAS ONE OF THE BEST PEDIGREE FOR ALL-WEATHER TRACK ICON   This is new but is already showing potency. 14) HAS OVERLAY TRAINER ICON  These trainers frequently win with horses at generous odds. 15) HAS THE OVERLAY JOCKEY ICON  These jockeys frequently win on horses at generous odds. 16) HAS THE BEST TURF PEDIGREE ICON  This works well in both the shorter turf races at a sprint distance and longer races at a route distance. 17) HAS THE BEST PEDIGREE ICON  Amazingly simple yet solid angle. 18) HAS GOOD RECENT WORKOUT ICON  Those that get this icon meet our strict criteria. 19) HAS THE PAR ICON  Ran a race recently that, if repeated, would be competitive at today's class level and distance. 20) HAS THE HOT JOCKEY ICON  Jockeys that are getting live mounts will frequently win with overlays as well as short prices. 21) HAS THE HOT TRAINER ICON  Trainers who have a currently live barn will frequently win with overlays as well as short prices. 22) HAS THE GOOD RECORD AT TRACK ICON  A basic handicapping factor yet so many who qualify run well at high odds. 23) LONE HORSE WITH 'FIRST TIME CLAIMING' RACE ICON  Horse running in a claiming race for the first time. Optional claimers not considered if it was entered for purse only. 24) HAS THE TOP TRAINER ANGLE ICON  Trainer is repeating a technique that has been very successful for him/her in the past. 25) HAS THE GETTING 5LBS OR MORE WEIGHT OFF ICON  You would be surprised on how many longshots run well getting 5lbs or more weight off from last race. 26) HAS THE BEST SPEED FIGURE (SPD FIG) Takes into account the most recent races run and there is a distance consideration as well. Another simple yet potentially solid overlay angle. 27) LAST RACE FINISH POSITION WAS 2ND,3RD, 4TH OR 5TH AND IS EQUAL TO OR BETTER (LOWER) THAN PREVIOUS RACE FINISH POSITION Can be found in {brackets} right next to each horse's jockey. 28) FINISHED 2ND, 3RD, 4TH OR 5TH IN LAST START AND DAYS SINCE LAST RACE (LST RCE) EQUAL TO OR LESS THAN 39 DAYS Can be found in {brackets} right next to each horse's jockey and days in the LST RCE column. 29) FINISHED 2ND, 3RD, 4TH OR 5TH IN BOTH OF LAST 2 STARTS AND DSLR MUST BE EQUAL TO OR LESS THAN 100 Can be found in {brackets} right next to each horse's jockey and days in the LST RCE column. 30) FINISHED 2ND, 3RD, 4TH OR 5TH IN ALL OF LAST 3 STARTS AND DSLR MUST BE EQUAL TO OR LESS THAN 100 Can be found in {brackets} right next to each horse's jockey and days in the LST RCE column. 31) WON LAST RACE AND FINISHED 2ND, 3RD, 4TH OR 5TH IN PREVIOUS START Can be found in {brackets} right next to each horse's jockey {most recent start on the left}. 32) DAYS SINCE LAST RACE EQUAL TO OR LESS THAN 9 (LST RCE) Days in the LST RCE column. Recency is another simple yet solid factor.  Get UNLIMITED ACCESS to all Full Card Reports HERE - Instant Access! © 2008 FullCardReports.com - Daily Horse Racing Reports |
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